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Senate Budget Committee ChairmanKent Conrad said theres a 75 percent chance lawmakers will passa health-care overhaul bill before a Christmas deadline, andthat the measure may prove a short-term political drag forDemocrats.

The North Dakota Democrat said the 10-year Senate healthplan designed to cover tens of millions of uninsured Americans,initially estimated at $848 billion, may be somewhat of adrag politically for Democrats in the short term.

Under one scenario, we could be here at 7 p.m. ChristmasEve, Conrad said in an interview on Bloomberg TelevisionsPolitical Capital with Al Hunt, which airs this weekend.Hopefully, somebody will be more reasonable and get in theholiday spirit so that we can do it a little before then.

Over the long term, he said, Democrats would be helpedbecause this bill will be very solid for the American people,and if its good for them it will be good politically, hesaid.

You have hundreds of millions of dollars of advertisingbeing run around the country totally misrepresenting whats inthis package, said Conrad, 61.

Democrats are working to secure 60 votes for passage astheir self-imposed deadline nears. Senate Majority Leader HarryReid of Nevada and President Barack Obama are trying to woo themain holdout in their party, Nebraska Senator Ben Nelson, whohas withheld his support over issues such as preventing federalsubsidies from being used to fund abortions.

Conrad, 61, also said hes confident that a revised costestimate of the legislation expected soon from the CongressionalBudget Office will show the plan meets the critical requirementof cutting the federal deficit in the first decade and beyond.

Our strong preference is itd be a statutory commission,one that has force of law behind it,

Conrad, whose panel oversees spending matters, continuedhis push for a bipartisan commission to recommend ways to reducethe federal deficit. He couldnt say whether Obama would backhis plan. He said that for the president to be credible ondeficit reduction, he would have to back a plan that has teethand that would mean something close to Conrads proposal.

Conrads joint proposal with Senator Judd Gregg of NewHampshire, the ranking Republican on the Budget Committee, callsfor an 18-member commission composed of eight Democraticlawmakers, eight Republican lawmakers and two Obamaadministration officials. Its plan would be due after the 2010midterm elections.

The real test is: Do the recommendations of thecommission come to Congress for a vote, he said. Because ifthey dont come for a vote, then its a wasted exercise.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, intestimony before a Senate committee yesterday, said thecommission is an excellent idea.

The federal budget deficit reached a record $1.4 trillionin the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30.

Conrad said its important for Congress to act early nextyear to revive the federal estate tax, after the Senate thisweek ran out of time to prevent a one-year expiration of thelevy for 2010. He said reinstating the tax may be difficult toachieve because of the other issues, including health care andlong-term debt, that need to be tackled.

On taxes, Conrad said the idea of a consumption tax, orvalue-added tax, has merit as a way to remake the tax system andmake it fairer. The concept may grow more popular with Americanswhen they understand it would be an elimination of income taxfor the vast majority of people, he said.

On another fiscal matter, Conrad said he would supportusing no more than $75 billion from the Treasury DepartmentsTroubled Asset Relief Program for job-creation efforts. TheHouse this month approved a $154 billion economic-aid packagewith about half coming from leftover TARP funds.

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, a MontanaDemocrat, said Congress would seek to restore the estate taxretroactively after the new year. The tax now yields about $25billion in revenue annually.

Theres going to be a big agenda here for January andFebruary, Conrad said.